In the race to develop a vaccine to stop the new coronavirus, this new coronavirus has killed more than one million people worldwide and paralyzed the entire world economy. We may have overlooked a very important question: if there is a new vaccine, would people actually want it?

Even before COVID-19 reached pandemic levels, the growing anti-vaccination campaign has caused one-fifth to two-fifths of Americans to question the safety of vaccines. Considering that vaccines usually take up to ten years to develop, these skeptics are not the only ones questioning the safety and effectiveness of coronavirus vaccines developed at a “speed”. The country’s largest infectious disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci, told Reuters on Wednesday that the coronavirus vaccine may arrive in early 2021.

Yahoo News and YouGov have been polling Americans for the past few months. The latest survey released this week found that the public’s popularity for potential vaccines has hit a record low. Only 42% of Americans said they plan to provide vaccination when and when they are available, down from 55% at the end of May and 46% at the beginning of July.

The number of Americans who said they would not get vaccinated and the number of people who said they were uncertain (36%) together accounted for about three-quarters of the population. This is worth noting because it is estimated that the country needs 70% to 90% of the vaccine to obtain the cattle immunity needed to stop the spread of COVID-19.

A new survey jointly conducted by Harvard University, Rutgers University, Northeastern University and Northwestern University now explores in more depth why some people are willing to be vaccinated for the future coronavirus, while others are more cautious. Moreover, people’s willingness to be vaccinated varies greatly according to people’s place of residence, political parties and some social factors including income.

“Health experts expect that a COVID-19 vaccine will be ready for the public in the first half of next year. But will the public be ready for a vaccine?”

— Katherine Ognyanova, Rutgers University

In this national survey of nearly 20,000 people, two-thirds of adults said that once a COVID-19 vaccine is developed, they may vaccinate themselves and their children. But in 11 states, mainly in the conservative South and Midwest, the proportion of people willing to be vaccinated is less than 60%. However, in the 11 states of the more liberal West Coast and Northeast, this proportion has exceeded 70%.

There is also a correlation between the level of education that is willing to receive the coronavirus vaccine and income. 78% of those with at least a bachelor’s degree said they plan to get the vaccine, while 58% of those who did not complete high school. More than half (59%) of people earning less than US$25,000 intend to be vaccinated, while more than three-quarters (78%) of people earning six-figure intend to be vaccinated.

And even though 67% of white Americans, 71% of Hispanics and 77% of Asian Americans say they are likely to be vaccinated in the future, only half of African Americans (52%) agree-although a few The ethnic population has decreased. The virus has been hit particularly hard. This is consistent with the results of the Reuters/Ipsos survey in May, which found that only half of black Americans are somewhat or very interested in vaccines.

The Reuters report indicated that this mistrust came from events such as the notorious U.S. government’s study in Tuskegee, which deliberately left blacks untreated for syphilis for decades to study their effects on syphilis. influences. The subjects thought they received free medical care, but in fact they did not receive proper medical care.

Indeed, trust is the main factor in determining whether the approximately 20,000 Americans in the new national survey said they would look for a coronavirus vaccine. Those who “very” trust doctors, hospitals, scientists, and researchers say they will consider vaccinating people who “completely distrust” COVID-19 is nearly four times more likely. Moreover, it is also important to believe that the media is providing them with “fake news”, because 82% of those who believe in the news media will be vaccinated, and 48% of those who do not believe in the news media.

Related:This Seattle man volunteered to be injected with an experimental COVID-19 vaccine: ‘It was kind of my duty as a healthy individual to step up’

Researchers found one obvious exception to the trust rule, and that is President Donald Trump. The people Trump trusts most are the least likely to be vaccinated (61%), while the people he least trusts are more likely to be vaccinated (72%). Three-quarters of Democrats (75%) surveyed also said that compared with Republicans and Independents (62%), they are more likely to be vaccinated.

The co-author of the study, Catherine Ognianova of Rutgers University, New Brunswick, said in a statement: “Health experts expect that the COVID-19 vaccine will be available in the first half of next year.” But will the public prepare for the vaccine?” Maybe not. A recent poll by CBS News found that half of Americans said they were taking a “wait and see” approach to observe the conditions of others before they were vaccinated. According to a survey by News Daily, almost one-third of residents on Long Island, New York are “unsure” whether they want to get the COVID-19 vaccine. An opinion poll in San Antonio, Texas found that one in five people is also not sure about getting the vaccine.

Related:Race for a COVID-19 vaccine has drug makers scaling up manufacturing — before one is developed

Indeed, vaccine researcher Natalie Dean, an assistant professor of biostatistics at the University of Florida, wrote in a New York Times op-ed this week that “even I would place myself in the ‘not sure’ bucket,” as, “the evidence that would convince me to get a COVID-19 vaccine, or to recommend that my loved ones get vaccinated, does not yet exist.”

Related:Should you volunteer for a COVID-19 vaccine trial? Who qualifies, and what are the side effects?

The way things stand now, legacy drug makers and small startups alike are working feverishly to develop vaccines or treatments that target COVID-19. More than 150 potential coronavirus vaccines are being developed around the world, and 27 are in human trials, the New York Times reports. They include AstraZeneca
the Pfizer

and BioNTech

project, and Moderna

— which is entering Phase 3 of its vaccine trial. On Wednesday, Johnson & Johnson

said it will receive more than $1 billion from the U.S. government to manufacture 100 million doses of its investigational COVID-19 vaccine.

But developing a vaccine in record time won’t amount to much if it’s not safe and effective, and if the public doesn’t trust it. One study found that a coronavirus vaccine’s effectiveness may have to be higher than 70% or even 80% before Americans can safely stop social distancing. By comparison, the flu vaccine is just 20% to 60% effective. Debbie Kaminer, a law professor at Baruch College in New York who has written about the legal questions around vaccination laws, wrote in a recent column that, “a safe and effective vaccine could end the coronavirus pandemic, but for it to succeed, enough people will have to get inoculated.”

There are now 18.9 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide, and at least 708,540 people have died, according to the latest tallies on Thursday afternoon. The U.S. death toll hit 158,300 after a 10th straight day in which more than 1,000 deaths were counted.

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