It doesn’t get much bigger than the nonfarm payrolls report and a speech from a Fed chairman. And on Friday, the markets get both.

Tim Duy, a University of Oregon professor, says, after this week’s economic data, the market is starting to price in the possibility not just that the Fed won’t cut by a half-point but that it won’t reduce rates at all this month. “Some might argue that it is not screaming for [a quarter-point] either, but it still looks like cheap insurance against the possibility that watching the data now is too much of an exercise of driving through the rearview window,” Duy said.

Does the market even want a good jobs number? “With all the concerns about the economy in recent weeks, we’re probably still in a period where good is good for risk, even if it will price out the more extreme central bank action,” argues Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank.

One of the stars during this bout of global economic fear has been silver

SI00, -2.64%.

Not only did it recently reach a three-year high, it is also making inroads on a relative basis to gold

GC00, -0.60%


“Market participants have been missing gold’s upswings and are likely now expressing this through silver and, more recently, platinum

PL00, -2.88%

 as well,” said Joni Teves, a strategist at UBS.

In the call of the day, Teves says positioning in silver is lean, “suggesting that there should be room for the uptrend to continue.” While net longs on gold were at record levels, silver was 74% of the record. Plus, silver trading on the Shanghai Gold Exchange has picked up. That said, Teves said silver’s higher volatility implies a “more nimble attitude” as opposed to strategic gold positions.

Markets

Following the 372-point blast higher in the Dow industrials on Thursday, U.S. stock futures

ES00, +0.24%

YM00, +0.27%

NQ00, +0.13%

 rose modestly.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury

TMUBMUSD10Y, +1.31%

 reached 1.59%, up 3 basis points.

Asian stocks

ADOW, +0.44%

 played catch-up to the Wall Street rally while European stock action

SXXP, +0.08%

was muted.

The buzz

Jobs data is due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Economists polled by MarketWatch expect 173,000 new jobs were created, an unemployment rate of 3.7% and a 0.3% increase in hourly wages. Hours worked will be another key part of the report after falling to a nearly two-year low in July. Companies tend to cut back hours before laying off workers. Canada is reporting its jobs numbers as well.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is going to get the last word before the central bank goes silent ahead of its Sept. 17-18 policy meeting. Powell is scheduled to speak in Switzerland, at the University of Zurich, about the U.S. economic outlook and interest-rate policy at 12:30 p.m. Eastern.

China on Friday cut its reserve-requirement ratio by a half-point.

The housing sector will be in the spotlight following the Treasury Department’s release of the long-awaited plan for the reform of state-sponsored mortgage backers Fannie Mae

FNMA, +1.71%

 and Freddie Mac

FMCC, -0.36%.

State attorneys general next week are preparing probes into Facebook

FB, +2.01%

and Alphabet

GOOG, +2.54%

 unit Google, The Wall Street Journal reports.

The chart

As Porsche’s Taycan gets rolled out, the stock market chart for Tesla

TSLA, +4.03%

isn’t looking particularly good, points out Greg Guenther over at The Rude Awakening blog. Whether Porsche’s electric car is a competitor or not—it is priced over $150,000—remains to be seen, but Tesla is struggling to rally from its July lows.


The tweet

A U.K. columnist raised eyebrows for this tweet on the death of longtime Zimbabwe strongman Robert Mugabe.

Random reads

Mugabe’s topsy-turvy rule became the narrative of Zimbabwe’s independence story.

A 73-year-old woman gave birth to twins.

The Loch Ness Monster may just be a giant eel.

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2019-09-06