According to Mehreen Khan and Alex Barker in the Financial Times, the word is out:
EU leaders are poised to offer the UK a Brexit extension until the end of October but with a review in June, according to European diplomats.”
Theresa May, UK prime minister, was called into an EU summit early on Thursday by leaders of other 27 members of the EU to be presented with the offer.”
So, in true European Union fashion, the can gets kicked down the road just a little bit further.
This whole Brexit affair has been a farce.
As I have stated many times, when the original referendum was offered, no one had a plan for “leaving” the European Union.
Well, those putting out the idea for a vote, Prime Minister Cameron and the Conservative Party, had no thoughts, whatever, that the vote would come out to “leave.”
So, no plans for “leaving” were ever even considered.
But, as we have seen so often recently, things get voted on, not for positive reasons, but for negative reasons.
For example, as Laurence Norman and Max Colchester write in the Wall Street Journal, “During the 2016 referendum, Brexit was billed as a way for Britain to take back control from the EU.”
The vote to “leave” was not based on what the UK could do if it left the EU.
The vote to “leave” was based on getting away from Brussels and the leaders of the EU.
And, it cannot be denied that a good portion of this feeling was based upon the “leavers’” attitude toward immigration, they wanted less of it than they saw coming from EU policies.
The unintended consequence of this vote to “leave” is that these voters got exactly what they did not want.
As Mr. Norman and Mr. Colchester argue in their WSJ piece, “on Wednesday night it was the EU’s leaders who held all the leverage.”
Theresa May, the current Prime Minister, who is desperately trying to craft together a plan for “Brexit,” has totally botched the situation and now is flailing around in the wind attempting to maintain some kind of hold on leadership so as to slip something through.
The bottom line to all this fuss is that I don’t believe that a plan for leaving the European Union can ever be constructed that would be able to pass through Parliament and then receive the approval of Brussels.
And, as just mentioned, the EU’s leaders hold all the cards!
There is, to me, only one thing that can be done now and that is for the UK to hold a second referendum.
There never was a plan to “leave” the European Union. In my mind, there will never be a plan to “leave” the European Union that can receive the approval of Parliament.
Continuing to postpone “Brexit” and do further work to construct a “passable” plan is just more of the European Union’s fundamental strategy of “kicking the can further down the road.”
Nothing will get done.
The only way for “Britain to take back control from the EU” or to have some real say over its own future is to have a second referendum.
I know that the argument is that “Britain” spoke its will in the first referendum and that decision is the only decision that should stand.
My argument back is that the first referendum was so ill-conceived by an over-confident prime minister that another referendum is needed to understand what is the real will of “Britain.”
What the first referendum has shown us is that a “real” plan for “leaving” is nothing but a pipe dream. The call for “leaving” was just a vote “against” something, not a vote to build something new and better. The vote “against” has turned out to be just smoke.
Yes, there are real issues about the leadership in Brussels. Yes, there is real concern about uncontrolled or unlimited immigration.
But, these issues and problems are not solved by just removing yourself from the debate.
The UK needs a second referendum to move forward. Hopefully, this will be the major result that comes out of the newly granted extension.
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.