The best-case scenario for Tesla Inc. stock is zooming to $500, an upside of nearly 50% thanks to the Silicon Valley car maker’s Cybertruck and the progress of its China factory.

That’s from analysts at Morgan Stanley, led by Adam Jonas, in upping their “bull case” on Tesla

TSLA, +2.03%

 to $500 from $440.

Their perhaps more realistic “base case” remained at $250, and the “bear case,” set in May, calls for $10 on lingering demand concerns. Morgan Stanley rates Tesla stock at their equivalent of hold.

Related: Tesla unveils its Cybertruck: An angular electric pickup starting at $39,900

“To be clear, we are not bullish on Tesla longer term,” as more and more investors are bound to perceive Tesla as a traditional auto maker, the analysts said in the note. There could be a surge in sentiment in the first half of the new year, but questions remain about how sustainable that would be, they said.

See also: Jim Chanos on Tesla: ‘We are still bears’

Tesla stock outperformed equity indexes on Friday, looking to end the seesawing week with gains of around 2%.

Of that $60 increase on the bull side of things, $20 comes from the Cybertruck unveiled last month and $40 from a would-be surge in China, Morgan Stanley said. The optimistic scenario is Tesla being able to sell about 100,000 of the angular pickup truck at an average price of $50,000 by 2024.

Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk has said Tesla has about 250,000 deposits for the Cybertruck, so Morgan Stanley is banking on roughly 40% of those turning into sales. The analysts called that an “optimistic assumption” given that Cybertruck preorders require a $100 refundable deposit.

Read more: Tesla’s best-selling sedans get reliability nod from Consumer Reports

In China, Morgan Stanley’s best-case scenario calls for about 450,000 vehicles sold by 2025, contrasting with a “base case” of around 250,000 vehicles sold in the same time frame.

Tesla shares have gained 1.4% this year, compared with gains of 26% and 20% for the S&P 500 index

SPX, +1.03%

 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

DJIA, +1.24%


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