Why The U.S. Yield Curve Reliably Predicts U.S. Recessions


By Richard M. Salsman The U.S. Treasury yield curve, depicted by maturities on a horizontal axis and corresponding interest rates (yields) on a vertical axis, is normally upward sloping, with yields on bonds (10-year maturity and beyond) and notes (intermediate term) lying above yields on bills (short term). Infrequently –Read More →

Yield Curve: Okay For Now


Originally published on September 16, 2019 The two-way trade resumes. Wow! What a week it was. Last week, I mean. Interest rates on the long end of the yield curve got yanked up so much the banking system ended up with a wedgie. The yield on the 30-year T-bond soaredRead More →

Pay Attention To The Message The Yield Curve Is Sending


Quick Review Do you love #volatility yet? Last week the market swung wildly back and forth on “trade talks,” “tariff relief,” inverted yield curves, and recession fears to finish the week on “hopes” banks will rescue the markets once again. The bounce on Friday was not unexpected as the marketRead More →

U.S. yield curve remains inverted for second day By Reuters


© Reuters. U.S. yield curve remains inverted for second day LONDON (Reuters) – The U.S. yield curve was inverted for the second straight trading session on Thursday, as investors’ concerns that the world’s biggest economy could be heading for recession deepened. () Two-year U.S. borrowing costs fell below 10-year costsRead More →

The Fed And The Yield Curve


Every postwar recession in the U.S. was preceded by an inversion of the yield curve. Yield curve inversion does not mean that we will have a recession, but it has been a red flag in the past. Perhaps that is why the Federal Reserve is telegraphing to markets that itRead More →

Market Update: A Lesson On The Yield Curve


By OpenMarkets When it comes to yield curve, everyone is focused on the inversion of the curve between the three-month and ten-year rates. That inversion has led to a recession 57 percent of the time in the last two decades. More interesting, says Jack Bouroudjian, is that it has ledRead More →

What You Don’t Know About The Yield Curve


Yield Curve Inverts On March 22nd of this year, financial news outlets reported the first yield curve inversion since 2007 (see chart below). A yield curve represents interest rates, at a point in time, across treasury securities of varying maturities. A normal curve slopes consistently upward (higher interest rate) asRead More →

February 2019 Yield Curve Update


Well, could the Fed end up with a soft landing here? Interest rates have recovered somewhat. We are basically at the same place we were a month ago, but it seems that sentiment has turned toward asking the Fed for more wage growth rather than worrying so much about inflationRead More →