In general, three main factors affect the price of gold in the long run: (1) the dollar, (2) the U.S. level of inflation and (3) monetary policy in the United States. Dollar The gold price stably negatively correlates with the Dollar Index. And it is actually normal because gold isRead More →

Editor’s note: This article was originally published on January 31, 2020 by James Hamilton here. The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced yesterday that U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.1% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2019. That’s slightly below the 2.3% average rate since the recovery from theRead More →

After all of the hype, and the hoopla, that both the equity and debt markets are over stressed, for one reason and another, new evidence comes to light. According to the St. Louis Fed, market stress has dropped to its lowest level on record with data going all the wayRead More →

The financial markets are reacting to the breakout of the coronavirus in China which has unfortunately moved to other parts of the world including the United States. This is a tragic event which could not have happened at a worse time as China begins celebrating its Lunar New Year GoldenRead More →

Businesses come and go. Some are naturally more resilient than others, but there’s very little to protect your average business from failing and going bankrupt. In fact, studies have shown that up to 70% of small businesses fail within their first 10 years. A whopping 70% of value destruction! LargerRead More →

The NZD/JPY currency pair, which expresses the value of the New Zealand dollar in terms of the Japanese yen, can often be volatile. On the one hand, you have the New Zealand dollar (or NZD) which is traditionally viewed as a commodity currency given the importance of (commodity) exports inRead More →

Sometimes it’s darkest before it’s… pitch black. Things are going from bad to worse at SoftBank (OTCPK:SFTBF) (OTCPK:SFTBY). Since January 2019, Vision Fund firms have laid off over 10,700 employees – more than 2x the workforce of Twitter (NYSE:TWTR). And last year will soon be the good old days. AugustRead More →

Over the past week, mounting geopolitical tensions have kept markets on their toes. As of today, equity markets have recovered whatever losses there were, but sentiment has still taken a hit. The percentage of bullish investors in the weekly AAII survey has fallen for a third straight week down toRead More →

Trading Stocks Trilogy-1: The Psychology

Overview: The S&P 500 recovered from a 10-day low to reach a new record high, which set the tone for the Asia-Pacific and European markets today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped by the most in a month with the Nikkei’s 2% advance leading the way. More broadly, the marketsRead More →

Market Performance Stocks had the second-best year since the inception of my portfolio in 1998, with (SPY) return including dividends of 31.0%. This was exceeded only by the 32.0% return in 2003. Bonds also enjoyed a good return as lower interest rates resulted in capital gains. (AGG) total return wasRead More →

“And if you go chasing rabbits, and you know you’re going to fall Tell ’em a hookah-smoking caterpillar has given you the call…” – Jefferson Airplane One of the most important bankruptcy attorneys in the United States lives in Fort Lauderdale. I am proud that he is a friend ofRead More →

Dear Tribe Member, Trust 2019 treated you well. It certainly was good for Safal Niveshak. The tribe crossed 60,000 members. Anyways, right before the year ends, I thought I’d share a handful of ideas I’ve learned, re-learned, and wrote about in the past twelve months. Here are 51 of themRead More →

Overview The holiday has already shut several markets, and those that are open are lightly traded. Equity markets are mixed but little changed in the Asia-Pacific region, while the European benchmark, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600, was hovering around the record high. Benchmark bond yields are slightly softer. The USRead More →

It is hard to believe that we went from the worst fourth quarter performance last year since 1931 to the best gain for the year in 2019 since 2013. We believe that there are more gains to be made in 2020 as the global economies recover after a sluggish performanceRead More →

The stock market is on a tremendous run this year, with all major indices gaining more than 20% to date. The tech sector has been a driving force behind those gains as the two largest companies in the stock market, Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), have each gainedRead More →

Midstream and MLPs ripped this week, continuing the rebound that began in the middle of last week. A benign broad market backdrop allowed midstream stocks and MLPs to rally on their own merits this week. The MLP Index returned to positive territory YTD and picked up some ground on theRead More →

With the bulk of S&P 500 (SPY) companies having reported earnings for 2019, estimates for earnings per share on a bottom-up basis are about $158.5 per share. This represents a 4.6% increase over the 2018 level of $151.6 and is 27.3% above the 2017 level of $124.5. The performance alsoRead More →

Dr. Bernanke has referred to the understanding of the forces behind the Great Depression as the “Holy Grail of Economics.” But was the Great Depression chiefly the consequence of post-crash policy mistakes, as conventional thinking has come profess? Was it really a case of the Federal Reserve having grossly failedRead More →

Yesterday’s blog post focused on the strength of the consumer and the positive impact on the housing market. Also noted in that post was the consumer’s improved financial position versus the end of the financial crisis and the current limited draw down of one’s home equity. Then today, the U.S.Read More →

This year has been quite a turbulent one when it comes to the price of crude oil. After beginning the year with a solid five-month rally that increased the price per barrel by $20, price has since reversed a good percentage of this movement. It is my belief that theRead More →

Another day, another dollar. It’s time to put those dollars to work. The market is starting to look pretty red, while that’s horrible if you are in your draw-down phase, for people accumulating stocks this is great. Will the market keep falling? Maybe. Will it rebound? Eventually. My portfolio hasRead More →

By Mike Pyle, Elga Bartsch, Kurt Reiman, Beata Harasim Earnings will be key for further U.S. equity gains. Third-quarter earnings season may offer some limited support to U.S. stocks in the near term, as the macro backdrop worsens and a growth rebound is months away. But we see easier financialRead More →