Christmas has come early for investors, with stocks again taking out record highs on Thursday as indexes continue to climb toward year-end. At last check, the Dow
was up triple digits, while both the S&P
were even more firmly in the black.
Clearly, the buyers have the upper hand lately, but are the bulls being smart? Or just greedy? According to this chart from Jesse Felder of the Felder Report blog, it’s looking like the latter.
The chart highlights the Rydex Ratio, which is a measure of Rydex traders’ assets in bear funds and money-market funds relative to their assets in bullish funds and sector funds. Felder describes it as, much like margin debt, “a real money indicator rather than just a survey of investor opinion.”
‘Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.’
The chart, which inverts the Rydex Ratio and puts it up against the S&P, shows that investors are at historic levels of bullishness. As Felder points out, even at the peak of the dot-com bubble, these traders weren’t as aggressively positioned — or greedy — as they are right now.
“From both a short-term and long-term perspective, it’s pretty clear investors have become greedy and to a fairly rare degree,” Felder said, adding that, with a nod to Berkshire Hathaway’s
Warren Buffett, it might be wise to “be fearful” when it comes to your portfolio.