Plant-based meat is going to be huge in the near future and Beyond Meat Inc. “is a true disruptor and innovator” in the industry, according to JPMorgan analysts.
Shares of Beyond Meat
jumped 8% on Tuesday after the company was initiated at overweight with a $97 price target at JPMorgan. Analysts there say Beyond Meat’s “growth opportunity is extraordinary.”
“Beyond Meat only needs to capture a fraction of this expansive total addressable market to be successful,” JPMorgan wrote.
Analysts model for a total addressable market (TAM), or total available market, for plant-based meat of $100 billion in 15 years, and think the company can generate $5 billion in net revenue in that time.
Analysts at Barclays, in a recent note, said they believe the alternative meat market can reach $140 billion on 10 years.
JPMorgan said it wanted to be “conservative” in its model for TAM, assuming that only two-thirds of meat varieties can be replaced by plant-based options, with plant-based meat share topping out at 10%.
“[I]n our opinion, Beyond Meat’s products arguably are superior to most, if not all, current competitive offerings in terms of taste and/or ingredients (unlike rival Impossible Burger, Beyond Burger has no soy and no GMOs),” the analysts said. They also highlighted that Beyond Meat can go further than burgers, with Beyond Sausage already showing promise.
Still, Impossible Burger could make share gains at Beyond Meat’s expense.
“Impossible Foods has established a significant presence in the food service channel (several thousand locations) and is rolling out nationwide with Burger King after a successful pilot,” JPMorgan wrote. “Impossible is also planning to enter U.S. retail this year. Our belief is that, in the context of a large addressable market, Impossible Burger’s success helps validate the plant-based meat category as a whole.”
Burger King announced that it would be taking its Impossible Whopper national later this year. Burger King is part of the Restaurant Brands International Inc.
Other research analysts aren’t quite as bullish as JPMorgan.
Goldman Sachs analysts think there is risk that Beyond Meat will have supply issues, struggle to keep pace with innovation and stay differentiated.
“Over the course of 2017 and 2018, Beyond Meat encountered a variety of supply-related problems which inhibited growth and weighed on margins,” Goldman Sachs wrote, saying the issues were “not insignificant,” though the company has overcome them.
“On the manufacturing front, the issues are all consistent with demand far exceeding management’s own expectations and bottlenecks emerging at different points in the supply chain, specifically around third-party co-packing capacity, internal extrusion capacity [in-house manufacturing] and raw material availability,” the analysts there said.
Goldman Sachs initiates Beyond Meat shares neutral with a $67 price target.
Jefferies analysts think there’s a “high probability” that McDonald’s Corp.
will add a plant-based option now that Burger King has the Impossible Whopper.
“We believe the growth opportunity is substantial within food service as large quick-service restaurants are looking to incorporate plant-based proteins to their menus given mainstream interest,” analysts wrote, referring to Beyond Meat.
Analysts model 82% organic sales growth in food service, which would be 44% of the top line growth Jefferies forecasts for the next three years. In total, Jefferies expects 70% organic sales growth for Beyond Meat.
Still, analysts think pricing versus traditional meat, competition and execution pose risks. And shares are up 220% from the $25 IPO price.
Jefferies initiates Beyond Meat stock hold with an $85 price target.
BofA Merrill Lynch is also upbeat about Beyond Meat’s prospects and total addressable market, but cautions that the technology could move ahead of Beyond Meat and Impossible Burger.
“If Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods represent the second generation of plant-based meat alternatives, then the third generation will likely come from a lab,” analysts wrote.
“Beyond Meat’s ingredients are common and accessible. The proprietary aspect of the process is the protein blend that Beyond Meat’s scientists have worked to develop. The accessibility of the equipment and the inputs poses a risk for the company as competitors start to ramp up and the plant-based space becomes more popular in the food industry.”
BofA Merrill Lynch initiates Beyond Meat shares neutral with an $85 price objective.