Author’s Note: This three-part article is a very detailed analysis of AGNC Investment Corp.’s (AGNC) income statement (technically speaking, the company’s “consolidated statement of comprehensive income”). I continue to perform this type of detailed quarterly analysis for readers who want to fully understand AGNC’s ever-changing mortgage-backed securities (“MBS”)/investment portfolio and risk management strategies. The accounts/topics discussed within this series of articles are also valuable for any investor that has an interest in the fixed-rate agency and broader mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT) sector. For readers who just want the summarized account projections, I would suggest to scroll down to the “Conclusions Drawn” section at the bottom of each part of the article.

Focus of Article:

The focus of this article is to provide a detailed projection of AGNC’s comprehensive income for the second quarter of 2019. Prior to results being provided to the public in late July (via the company’s quarterly press release), I would like to analyze AGNC’s consolidated statement of comprehensive income and provide readers a general direction on how I believe this recent quarter has panned out. I believe this quarter has a heightened level of importance to readers due to the recent events surrounding the Federal Open Market Committee’s (“FOMC”) decision regarding monetary policy and certain global macroeconomic events which impacted the yield curve. Specifically, there was heightened importance regarding the FOMC’s decision regarding the Federal (Fed) Funds Rate and movements within the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR). Due to the length of the material covered, I believe it is necessary to break this projection article into three parts.

Side Note: Predicting a company’s accounting figures within the mREIT sector is usually more difficult when compared to other sectors due to the various hedging and asset portfolio strategies that are implemented by management each quarter. As such, there are multiple assumptions used when performing such an analysis. AGNC’s actual reported values may differ materially from my projected values within this article due to unforeseen circumstances (which has been a rare occurrence since I began covering AGNC over six years ago). Such variances could occur because management deviates from a company’s prior business strategy and pursues a new strategy that was not previously disclosed or anticipated. Readers should be aware of these possibilities.

All projections within this article are my personal estimates and should not solely be used for any investor’s buying or selling decisions. All actual reported figures that are above the mean of my account projections will be deemed an “outperformance” in my judgment. All actual reported figures that are below the mean of my account projections will be deemed an “underperformance” in my judgment. Unless otherwise noted, all figures below are for the “three months ended” (quarterly) time frame.

By understanding the trends that occurred within AGNC’s operations during the second quarter of 2019, one can apply this information to sector peers as well. As such, the discussion/analysis below is not solely applicable to AGNC but to the fixed-rate agency mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT) sector as a whole. This includes, but is not limited to, the following fixed-rate agency mREIT peers: 1) Arlington Asset Investment Corp. (AI); 2) ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR); 3) Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp. (CHMI); 4) Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY);and 5) Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC). Technically speaking, AI’s 2018 “entity status” was not a REIT per the Internal Revenue Code (“IRC”) but a C-Corporation. However, AI still maintained many “mREIT-like characteristics” including the type of investments held by the company, similar risk management strategies, and the amount of dividend distributions paid to shareholders. Beginning in 2019, AI has “switched back” to a REIT entity per the IRC.

Consolidated Statement of Comprehensive Income (Loss) Overview:

Using Table 1 below as a reference, let us first look at AGNC’s quarterly consolidated statements of comprehensive income for the second quarter of 2019 (ESTIMATE column). Table 1 also provides AGNC’s comprehensive income (loss) for the prior three quarters (ACTUAL columns) for comparative purposes.

Table 1 – AGNC Quarterly Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income (Loss)

(Source: Table created by me, partially using data obtained from AGNC’s quarterly investor presentation slides)

Table 1 above is the main source of summarized data regarding AGNC’s net income (loss) amount. As such, all material accounts within Table 1 will be separately analyzed and discussed in corresponding order to the boxed blue reference next to the June 30, 2019 column. PART 1 of this article will include an analysis of the following accounts: 1) interest income; 2) interest expense; and 3) gain (loss) on sale of investment securities, net. PART 2 of this article will include an analysis on the following account (including several “sub-accounts”): 4) gain (loss) on derivative instruments and other securities, net.

1) Interest Income:

  • Estimate of $735 Million; Range $685-$785 Million
  • Confidence Within Range = Moderate to High
  • See Boxed Blue Reference “1” in Table 1 Above and Table 2 Below Next to the June 30, 2019 Column

AGNC’s interest income is comprised of the following two sub-accounts: a) cash interest income; andb) premium amortization, net. I show my projection for these two figures in Table 2 below. Some past (ACTUAL) figures within Table 2 are derived from AGNC’s 10-Q or 10-K where applicable. This excludes all recalculated figures and ratios. As such, there will not be an identical sheet AGNC provides that matches the data I have prepared in Table 2 below.

Table 2 – AGNC Quarterly Interest Income Projection

AGNC Quarterly Interest Income Projection(Source: Table created by me, partially using AGNC data obtained from the SEC’s EDGAR Database)

The first component of AGNC’s interest income is the company’s cash interest income sub-account. Two assumptions should be noted within Table 2 above when projecting AGNC’s cash interest income for the second quarter of 2019. First, I am projecting AGNC’s “average securities, at cost” balance increased by $7.3 billion for the second quarter of 2019 when compared to the prior quarter ($97.3 billion versus $90.0 billion). I would consider this a modest increase. This is mainly due to a projected minor increase in AGNC’s MBS/investment portfolio as a direct result of the company’s November 2018 equity offering (deployment for the first “full” quarter). I am projecting AGNC slightly increased the company’s 3/31/2019 on-balance sheet MBS/investment portfolio while maintaining a historically lower net long “to-be-announced” (“TBA”) MBS position (which will be discussed in PART 2) during most of the second quarter of 2019 due to the projected continued preference of specified pool MBS versus generic TBA MBS.

Second, I am projecting a minor decrease to AGNC’s “weighted average coupon” (“WAC”) for the second quarter of 2019 when compared to the prior quarter (3.86% versus 3.89%). This projection factors in AGNC’s TBA MBS position, portfolio reinvestment, proportion of 15-year fixed-rate agency MBS versus 30-year, and the net movement of mortgage interest rates during the quarter. Still using Table 2 above as a reference, I am projecting a cash interest income increase of $48 million for the second quarter of 2019 when compared to the prior quarter ($895 million versus $847 million).

The second component of AGNC’s interest income is the company’s premium amortization, net sub-account. During a falling interest rate environment, generally an increase in prepayments will occur because a growing number of homeowners have mortgages that have higher interest rates when compared to current market interest rates. As such, the attractiveness of a mortgage refinance increases. As a result, prepayment risk generally increases while extension risk decreases. Therefore, the average life of AGNC’s fixed-rate agency MBS portfolio generally shortens. This would directly lead to a higher quarterly premium amortization expense. In addition, seasonality trends should also be considered when analyzing/projecting this account.

During the second quarter of 2019, mortgage interest rates/long-term U.S. Treasury yields sharply net decreased during the second half which accelerated during June. Through research, I have determined a majority of AGNC’s MBS holdings experienced a modest net “conditional prepayment rate” (“CPR”) percentage increase during the second quarter of 2019. As a whole, I also believe AGNC’s lifetime CPR as of 6/30/2019 slightly increased when compared to 3/31/2019’s already increased percentage. This has a negative impact on AGNC’s premium amortization expense.

Using Table 2 above as a reference, including the assumption of a slightly larger average MBS balance, slightly higher weighted average purchase price, and a slightly greater proportion of 30-year fixed-rate agency MBS versus 15-year during the quarter, I am projecting a premium amortization, net expense increase of $16 million for the second quarter of 2019 when compared to the prior quarter ($160 million versus $142 million).

When my projections for the cash interest income and premium amortization, net expense sub-accounts are combined, I am projecting AGNC’s interest income to increase by $30 million for the second quarter of 2019 when compared to the prior quarter ($735 million versus $705 million).

2) Interest Expense:

  • Estimate of $555 Million; Range $515-$595 Million
  • Confidence Within Range = Moderate to High
  • See Boxed Blue Reference “2” in Table 1 Above and Table 3 Below Next to the June 30, 2019 Column

Now let us take a look at AGNC’s interest expense account. I show my projection for this figure in Table 3 below. Some past (ACTUAL) figures within Table 3 are derived from AGNC’s 10-Q or 10-K where applicable. This excludes all recalculated figures and ratios. I have gathered specific information derived from multiple tables/charts for a more detailed analysis of AGNC’s interest expense account.

Table 3 – AGNC Quarterly Interest Expense Projection

AGNC Quarterly Interest Expense Projection(Source: Table created by me, partially using AGNC data obtained from the SEC’s EDGAR Database [link provided below Table 2])

To project AGNC’s quarterly interest expense, one takes the quarterly average of the company’s outstanding repurchase agreements and multiplies this amount by the quarterly average cost of funds rate. Once this figure is calculated, one needs to back out a portion of the quarterly interest income (expense) in relation to AGNC’s interest rate payer swaps. This reclassified amount is accounted for within AGNC’s gain (loss) on derivative instruments and other securities, net account. This account will be projected in PART 2 of the article. The final calculated amount is AGNC’s quarterly interest expense figure. There is also another methodology that can be performed to project AGNC’s interest expense account (including a reclassification amount). However, for purposes of this article, I will solely focus on the methodology shown in Table 3 above.

Two assumptions should be noted within Table 3 when projecting AGNC’s quarterly interest expense figure for the second quarter of 2019. First, let us calculate an appropriate quarterly “average repurchase agreements” balance. Based on an earlier calculated figure within AGNC’s interest income account (see Table 2 above), I am projecting the company had a quarterly average securities, at cost balance of $97.3 billion for the second quarter of 2019. If one takes this figure and divides it by the quarterly average of AGNC’s outstanding repurchase agreements balance, a calculated “ratio of average securities versus average repurchase agreements” is projected. This ratio has been in a range of 1.10-1.14 during the prior three quarters. For the second quarter of 2019, I am using a ratio of 1.10. When calculated, this balance is projected to be $88.4 billion. This is a projected increase of $6.4 billion (rounded) for the second quarter of 2019 when compared to the prior quarter ($88.4 billion versus $82.1 billion).

Second, let us now obtain a suitable quarterly “average cost of funds rate”. I am projecting a decrease of (11) basis points (“bps”) regarding AGNC’s average cost of funds rate for the second quarter of 2019 when compared to the prior quarter (2.22% versus 2.33%). As mentioned earlier, all interest income (expense) in relation to AGNC’s interest rate payer swaps are reclassified out of this account. As such, a portion of the quarterly average cost of funds rate is not in relation to AGNC’s outstanding repurchase agreements. AGNC’s interest expense regarding the company’s outstanding repurchase agreements is based on a small fixed-rate percentage and a variable-rate percentage mainly based on LIBOR. During the second quarter of 2019, repurchase agreement interest rates had a fairly similar decrease when compared to current/“spot” U.S. LIBOR.

AGNC’s weighted average interest rate on the company’s outstanding repurchase agreements was 2.82% and 2.79% as of 3/31/2019 and 12/31/2018, respectively. However, it should be noted these percentages were “elevated” due to quarter-/year-end “spikes” in rates. U.S. LIBOR had a minor-notable net decrease across all tenors/maturities during the second quarter of 2019. This was mainly due to the market’s anticipation that the FOMC would continue to indicate a more “dovish”/cautious tone regarding overall U.S. monetary policy; thus holding-off on any further Fed Funds Rate increases during 2019 and more recently indicated a likely 25 basis point (“bp”) decrease within the next several months. As I have correctly stated for several years via articles and comments, once the Fed Funds Rate “lifted-off”, U.S. LIBOR would either immediately “follow suit” and increase by roughly the same bps or the market would anticipate such a move thus causing U.S. LIBOR to increase leading up to this event. The same holds true if there is the notion that there will be a decrease to the Fed Funds Rate which is the main reason U.S. LIBOR decreased across all maturities during the second quarter of 2019.

Now that we have determined AGNC’s average repurchase agreements balance and average cost of funds rate, let us calculate the company’s interest expense for the second quarter of 2019. Still using Table 3 above as a reference, after a projected reclassification of $70 million in relation to the net periodic interest income regarding AGNC’s interest rate swaps (fifth consecutive quarter interest income would be recorded/received by the company; very important to understand as this partially mitigates the recent rise in borrowing costs), I am projecting the company’s interest expense increased by $14 million for the second quarter of 2019 when compared to the prior quarter ($555 million versus $541 million).

3) Gain (Loss) on Sale of Investment Securities, Net:

  • Estimate of $100 Million; Range $0–$200 Million
  • Confidence Within Range = Moderate to High
  • See Boxed Blue Reference “3” in Table 1 Above Next to the June 30, 2019 Column

AGNC’s gain (loss) on sale of investment securities, net account can be somewhat difficult to accurately project at times. Through detailed research and data compilation, one can project (to a reasonable degree) how management “should” act within any given quarter regarding purchases and sales. However, I stress beforehand this will not be an “exact science” each quarter. There will be some variances that occur in a quarter if more/less sales and/or purchases actually occur versus originally projected. Additionally, unanticipated quarterly changes in the percentage of coupons/maturities held within the MBS portfolio would cause a slight deviation in asset valuations. At periodic intervals, management provides some clarity on the company’s intended strategy regarding investment sales when mortgage interest rates/long-term U.S. Treasury yields rise or fall. However, several assumptions still need to be made.

Therefore, this particular account is DIRECTLY tied to AGNC’s “unrealized gain (loss) on investment securities measured at fair market value (“FMV”) through net income, net” and “unrealized gain (loss) on available-for-sale (“AFS”) securities, net” accounts that will be discussed in PART 3 of this article. If AGNC’s gain (loss) on sale of investment securities, net actual amount is above or below my projected figure/range, the variance is automatically offset in these two other accounts. As such, my COMBINED projected figures would be accurately represented. This consideration has been proven correct in numerous prior quarters. In my professional opinion, these three accounts should really be looked at as one combined account. The unrealized gain (loss) on investment securities measured at FMV through net income, net and unrealized gain (loss) on AFS securities, net accounts have an immediate impact on BV while the gain (loss) on sale of investment securities, net account is merely a reclassification out of the unrealized account. Readers should understand this notion prior to this account’s analysis.

When compared to the prior quarter, I am anticipating a slightly higher amount of activity within this account during the current quarter. As such, I am projecting an “investment sold, at cost” amount of ($6.0) billion for the second quarter of 2019. The more important figure to discuss is not the amount of investment securities sold but whether a gain (loss) occurred from the quarterly sales. As of 12/31/2018, AGNC had an accumulated other comprehensive loss (“OCL”) balance of ($0.9) billion. This balance decreased to ($0.5) billion as of 3/31/2019. With the modest-material net increase in MBS pricing across most coupons during the second quarter of 2019 (analyzed in PART 3), the probability of the company recording a net gain within this account in future quarters has continued to increase. The total amount of AGNC’s net realized gain (loss) would be dependent on which particular investment securities were sold and at what time during the quarter these sales occurred.

When taking both factors above into consideration, I am projecting AGNC will report a net realized gain on the sale of investment securities of $100 million for the second quarter of 2019 which would be a minor increase when compared to a net realized gain of $60 million during the prior quarter.

Brief Discussion of NLY’s MBS/Investment Portfolio (Impacts to the Same General Accounts Discussed Above):

When it comes to AGNC’s sector peer NLY, I see several minor-modest differences that would impact the accounts described above. For instance, as of 3/31/2019, only 5% of NLY’s fixed-rate agency MBS portfolio consisted of 15-year maturities whereas AGNC had 11% of the company’s MBS portfolio in 15-year maturities (including TBA MBS positions). It should also be noted, beginning several years ago, NLY diversified the company’s investment portfolio by allocating more capital into commercial debt/real estate, preferred equity, corporate debt, residential whole loans, mortgage servicing rights (“MSR”), and middle market (“MM”) lending. NLY’s added diversification should result in reduced volatility during certain interest rate cycles (reduction in duration). In addition, NLY acquired a variable-rate agency mREIT, Hatteras Financial Corp. (HTS) in 2016 and acquired a hybrid mREIT, MTGE Investment Corp. (MTGE) in September 2018. These additional portfolios will impact NLY’s interest income and expense accounts accordingly (proportionately speaking). However, it should be noted a vast majority of NLY’s investment portfolio still remained in fixed-rate agency MBS when based on FMV (90% as of 3/31/2019).

Conclusions Drawn (PART 1):

To sum up the analysis above, I am projecting AGNC will report the following account figures for the second quarter of 2019 (look back to Table 1 near the beginning of the article for quick reference):

  1. Quarterly Interest Income of $735 Million
  2. Quarterly Interest Expense of $555 Million
  3. Quarterly Net Gain on the Sale of Investment Securities of $100 Million

First, I am projecting AGNC had a minor increase in interest income when compared to the prior quarter. I am projecting an increase of $30 million in this account due to the following factors regarding AGNC’s MBS/investment portfolio during the second quarter of 2019 (when compared to the prior quarter): 1) modest increase in the average securities balance (positive factor); 2) minor decrease in the WAC rate (negative factor); and 3) minor increase in net premium amortization expense (negative factor).

Second, I am projecting AGNC had a minor increase to the company’s interest expense figure when compared to the prior quarter. I am projecting an increase of $14 million in this account due to the following factors during the second quarter of 2019 (when compared to the prior quarter): 1) modest increase in AGNC’s average outstanding repurchase agreements balance (negative factor); and 2) minor decrease to the weighted average interest rate on the company’s outstanding repurchase agreements (positive factor).

I am projecting a minor per share decrease in AGNC’s net spread income during the second quarter of 2019 when compared to the prior quarter. This should be seen as a “cautionary” factor/trend.

Third, I am projecting AGNC had a modest net realized gain on the company’s investment securities sales during the second quarter of 2019. This projection is due to the following factors: 1) fairly large OCL balance as of 3/31/2019 (negative factor); and 2) modest-material increase in fixed-rate agency MBS pricing across most coupons during the second quarter of 2019 (positive factor).

My BUY, SELL, or HOLD Recommendation:

I decided to provide my AGNC recommendation to readers after PART 1 of this article so there is a better sense on my thoughts regarding the company’s current valuation (so readers do not have to wait until PART 3). I would stress beforehand this recommendation is based on ALL of my AGNC account projections, including accounts that will be discussed in PART 2 and PART 3. All I ask is to please be patient for PART 2 and PART 3. Also, please do not ask for my AGNC book value (“BV”) projection as of 6/30/2019 until it is provided in a future BV article (see my “Final Note” below on how to gain access to my 6/30/2019 and CURRENT BV projections on all twenty mREIT stocks I cover prior to earnings/throughout the quarter).

From the analysis provided above, including additional catalysts/factors not discussed within this particular article, I currently rate AGNC as a SELL when I believe the company’s stock price is trading at or greater than a 2.5% premium to my projected non-tangible BV as of 6/30/2019, a HOLD when trading at less than a 2.5% premium through less than a (5%) discount to my projected non-tangible BV as of 6/30/2019, and a BUY when trading at or greater than a (5%) discount to my projected non-tangible BV as of 6/30/2019. These ranges are unchanged when compared to my last AGNC article (approximately 2 months ago).

Therefore, I currently rate AGNC as a HOLD since the stock is trading at less than a 2.5% premium through less than a (5%) discount to my projected non-tangible BV as of 6/30/2019.

Along with the data presented within this article, this recommendation considers the following mREIT catalysts/factors: 1) projected future MBS price movements; 2) projected future derivative valuations;and 3) projected near-term dividend per share rates. This recommendation also considers the recent four Fed Funds Rate increases by the FOMC during 2018 (this was a more hawkish tone/rhetoric when compared to most of 2017) and the more recent dovish tone/rhetoric regarding overall monetary policy due to recent macroeconomic trends/events. This also considers the wind-down/decrease of the Fed’s balance sheet through gradual runoff/partial non-reinvestment (which began in October 2017 which has increased spread/basis risk) and the recent announcement of “easing” of this wind-down starting in May 2019 regarding U.S. Treasuries and September 2019 regarding agency MBS (which should partially reduce spread/basis risk over time).

Each investor’s BUY, SELL, or HOLD decision is based on one’s risk tolerance, time horizon, and dividend income goals. My personal recommendation will not fit each reader’s current investing strategy. The factual information provided within this article is intended to help assist readers when it comes to investing strategies/decisions.

Current/Recent mREIT Sector Stock Disclosures:

On 6/29/2017, I initiated a position in CHMI at a weighted average purchase price of $18.425 per share. On 10/6/2017, 10/26/2017, 11/6/2017, 1/29/2018, 10/12/2018, and 6/6/2019, I increased my position in CHMI at a weighted average purchase price of $18.015, $18.245, $17.71, $17.145, $17.235, and $16.315 per share, respectively. When combined, my CHMI position has a weighted average purchase price of $17.033 per share. This weighted average per share price excludes all dividends received/reinvested. Each CHMI trade was disclosed to readers in real time (that day) via the StockTalks feature of Seeking Alpha. I currently have a BUY recommendation on CHMI.

On 8/31/2017, I initiated a position in CHMI’s Series A preferred stock, (CHMI.PA). On 9/12/2017, I increased my position in CHMI-A. When combined, my CHMI-A position has a weighted average purchase price of $25.198 per share. Each CHMI-A trade was disclosed to readers in real time (that day) via the StockTalks feature of Seeking Alpha. I currently have a HOLD recommendation on CHMI.PA.

On 1/31/2017, I initiated a position in New Residential Investment Corp. (NRZ) at a weighted average purchase price of $15.10 per share. On 6/29/2017, 7/7/2017, and 12/21/2018, I increased my position in NRZ at a weighted average purchase price of $15.775, $15.18, and $14.475 per share, respectively. When combined, my NRZ position has a weighted average purchase price of $14.912 per share. This weighted average per share price excludes all dividends received/reinvested. Each NRZ trade was disclosed to readers in real time (that day) via the StockTalks feature of Seeking Alpha. I currently have a BUY recommendation on NRZ.

On 1/29/2018, I initiated a position in Two Harbors Investment Corp. (TWO) at a weighted average purchase price of $15.155 per share. On 4/17/2019, I increased my position in TWO at a weighted average purchase price of $13.165 per share. When combined, my TWO position has a weighted average purchase price of $13.825 per share. This weighted average per share price excludes all dividends received/reinvested. Each TWO trade was disclosed to readers in real time (that day) via the StockTalks feature of Seeking Alpha. I currently have a HOLD recommendation on TWO (very close to my BUY range though).

On 3/8/2018, I initiated a position in New York Mortgage Trust, Inc.’s (NYMT) Series D preferred stock, (NYMTN). On 4/6/2018, 4/27/2018, 10/12/2018, 12/7/2018, 12/18/2018, and 12/21/2018, I increased my position in NYMTN. When combined, my NYMTN position has a weighted average purchase price of $22.379 per share. This weighted average per share price excludes all dividends received/reinvested. Each NYMTN trade was disclosed to readers in real time (that day) via the StockTalks feature of Seeking Alpha. I currently have a BUY recommendation on NYMTN.

On 10/12/2018, I initiated a position in Granite Point Mortgage Trust, Inc. (GPMT) at a weighted average purchase price of $18.155 per share. This weighted average per share price excludes all dividends received/reinvested. This GPMT trade was disclosed to readers in real time (that day) via the StockTalks feature of Seeking Alpha. I currently have a HOLD recommendation on GPMT.

On 10/12/2018, I initiated a position in AG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc. (MITT) at a weighted average purchase price of $17.105 per share. On 4/17/2019 and 6/3/2019, I increased my position in MITT at a weighted average purchase price of $16.22 and $15.52 per share, respectively. When combined, my MITT position has a weighted average purchase price of $15.946 per share. This weighted average per share price excludes all dividends received/reinvested. Each MITT trade was disclosed to readers in real time (that day) via the StockTalks feature of Seeking Alpha. I currently have a BUY recommendation on MITT (close to my HOLD range though).

On 6/3/2019, I initiated a position in ARR at a weighted average purchase price of $17.545 per share. This weighted average per share price excludes all dividends received/reinvested. This ARR trade was disclosed to readers in real time (that day) via the StockTalks feature of Seeking Alpha. I currently have a BUY recommendation on ARR (close to my HOLD range though).

On 6/3/2019, I initiated a position in Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR) at a weighted average purchase price of $15.49 per share. This weighted average per share price excludes all dividends received/reinvested. This IVR trade was disclosed to readers in real time (that day) via the StockTalks feature of Seeking Alpha. I currently have a HOLD recommendation on IVR.

All trades/investments I have performed over the past several years have been disclosed to readers in real time (that day at the latest) via the StockTalks feature of Seeking Alpha (which cannot be changed/altered). Through this resource, readers can look up all my prior disclosures (buys/sells) regarding all companies I cover here at Seeking Alpha (see my profile page for a list of all stocks covered). Through StockTalk disclosures, at the end of June 2019, I had an unrealized/realized gain “success rate” of 88.1% and a total return (includes dividends received) success rate of 100% out of 42 total positions (updated monthly; multiple purchases/sales in one stock count as one overall position until fully closed out [no realized total losses]). I encourage other Seeking Alpha contributors to provide real time buy and sell updates for their readers which would ultimately lead to greater transparency/credibility.

Final Note: I am currently “teaming up” with Colorado Wealth Management to provide intra-quarter CURRENT BV per share projections on all 20 mREIT stocks I currently cover. This consists of weekly BV projections for all agency mREITs I cover (including AGNC) and monthly BV projections for all hybrid/multipurpose mREITs. I also provide some commentary/overall thoughts on most mREIT’s quarterly earnings. These very informative (and “premium”) projections are provided through Colorado’s S.A. Marketplace service. This service will not impact my own real-time stock purchase and sale disclosures which I provide, for free, through the StockTalks feature of Seeking Alpha.

Disclosure: I am/we are long CHMI, CHMI.PA, ARR, GPMT, IVR, MITT, NRZ, NYMTN, TWO. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: I currently have no position in AGNC, AI, MORL, NLY, NYMT, ORC, or REM.

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2019-07-03